In 1982, epidemiologists predicted that the incidence of asbestos-related malignant diseases would begin to decline by the late 2000s. Forty years later, with 2022 beginning in less than a month, the question is: were they right?
Asbestos was widely used in industrial and other work and residential settings through the early 1970s. Asbestos consumption in the United States peaked in 1973 and then dropped dramatically during the next three decades. Throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s, the number of asbestos claims exploded, reaching a peak in 2003. Approximately 730,000 people had filed an asbestos claim through 2002, with at least 8,400 entities having been named as asbestos defendants through that period.
From 2003 until 2008, the amount of asbestos claim filings dropped significantly, nearing an 84% decrease during that period. Beginning in 2007, the number of filings plateaued, hovering around 20% of the 2001 level. This would remain the trend until 2015, with consistent numbers of filings occurring nationwide during that period.
In 2015 filings began to drop once again, decreasing approximately 7% per year until 2019, totaling a cumulative decline of 24% over a five-year period from 2014 until 2019. From 2018 until 2020, the decrease continued, albeit more slowly, with an 11% drop in asbestos claims filed, a 5.5% decrease annually.
The question posed is simple: after forty years of studies and analytics, did the predictions made in 1982 prove to be accurate or did they wildly miss the mark? In reviewing the data, the original prediction made in 1982 has shown to be remarkably accurate as to when the decrease in cases arising out of asbestos litigation would occur. The boom of asbestos litigation in 2003 coincided with the latency period of illness arising out of alleged exposure, and has decreased every year since, with the exception of 2010, resulting in an aggregate decline of 39% of filings over the twelve-year period of 2008 until 2020.
In terms of what this means for the future of asbestos litigation, the current trends show a clear continued decrease in cases. In 2018, the number of new asbestos cases filed was more than 4,100; in 2020, that number had dropped to 3,000 new case filings reported. The number of cases filed as we continue into the 2020s is likely to see further decrease, as the class of plaintiffs decreases following the limitation of asbestos in the early 1980s. However, there may likely be an increase in the next two years of cases filed that were limited by the slowing of the courts in the COVID pandemic. Certainly, it is unlikely that the number of cases will end or see a significant decrease from the current range for some time, with more filings on cases concerning take-home exposure and talc.
Overall, on the data collected, it seems that the highest wave of asbestos litigation has passed and the end of the 2010s marked the turning point in the frequency of these cases, just as those epidemiologists wrote back in 1982. Not bad for a predication made almost half a century ago.